Something to Believe In.
As the 2020 election draws nearer, millions of Americans have cast their votes. Hundreds of political “experts” have given their input on the race. Here’s yet another one alongside a plea to trust the numbers and restore your faith in the political industry.
2016 Shortcomings
Democrats have waited 1,456 days to try their hand at the White House once again. Yes, Hillary Clinton, who was favored by 91% to win the election leading into the final week of the 2016 campaign, saw her political capstone moment upturned by the right and their brute force Trump-Pence campaign. Of course, the polling numbers were far off for many experts who may have under- or over-represented their polling errors (see Fig. 1).
The Trump campaign garnered much of their support online (as far as Russia and Macedonia) and saw a grand portion of their momentum continue through techniques honed by Brad Parscale, the 2016 Trump campaign digital director. He noted that Trump was a “great product” and credits this towards the win.
“You want a great product, you want things that resonate with people and make them dance.”
This online presence was studied by the University of Tennessee-Knoxville. Their study, which analyzed 770,005 tweets in English from Russian troll accounts and corresponding FiveThirtyEight polling data archives, published in First Monday. It showed that every 25,000 retweets of Russian accounts correlated to a 1 percent increase in polling numbers for Trump a week later. It is worth noting that correlation does not equal causation, but this is a notable figure to consider as people continue to underscore the roles of foreign meddling in elections and the distrust of media. Shockingly, the man who used media to help win the 2016 election has sowed the most doubt towards media ever since. As Rutgers University found in a recent study, Americans’ interactions on these social media sites can determine their trust in media. Moreover, as a result of the growing cynicism and propaganda, many fail to trust what they see online — regardless of its alignment with their information silos.
In addition to social media and news, many are skeptical about political institutions, elections, polls, advertisements, and their fellow neighbors (see Fig. 3) as a result of the unforeseen Trump victory.
After a crushing blow to conventional political approaches, it shouldn’t surprise that this is the result. The day after the election, reactions spanned from shock, disgust, fear, and numbness on the left and confusion or jubilation on the right. Those reactions have continued for the last four years as many Americans have watched President Trump’s antics. Now, Americans are begrudgingly facing today’s election and largely don’t know where to turn.
Percentage Change You Can Believe In
I chatted with Micah Cohen, a risk analyst at ABS Group, a business management consulting group specializing in risk and reliability solutions, about the 2020 election and the data at play. In a world that now distrusts politics, polls, numbers, and figures, perhaps someone outside of the industry can lend some insight. He provided a spreadsheet of numbers that “compare [Joe] Biden and [Hillary] Clinton’s numbers [against Trump] in polling averages, margins, and FiveThirtyEight forecasts.” FiveThirtyEight notably gave Trump one of the greatest chances to win in 2016. After the short interview, I delve into his figures. Cohen’s answers have been shortened for publication.
Q: Why did you think it was necessary to pull this data? What are you hoping this data helps prove?
A: “I wanted to pull the data to cut through all the noise and speculation about the election. Where do the numbers say things stand, and how does today’s election compare to 2016?
The polling in 2016 wasn’t terribly off, for the most part, and shows that Biden really is in a stronger position than Clinton was four years ago.”
Q: Do you believe we can trust polling and data this cycle?
A: “I would say yes, we can trust the polling. The last several cycles have been reasonably accurate-the typical battleground state polling in 2016 was only off by about 3 points.
The same stands for the forecasts; FiveThirtyEight was the only forecast to give Trump a chance in 2016, and it called the 2018 races relatively accurately.
Two caveats, though: the first is uncertainty related to COVID; we don’t know how that’s going to affect polling or forecasting, because it’s so unprecedented. We also don’t know what the high levels of early voting are going to mean in relation to later polls.”
Some highlights from Cohen’s research:
- Biden leads in states decided by under 10 points in 2016 by a median of 3.6 points and an average of 4.7 points. FiveThirtyEight gives him a median chance of 88% (and an average chance of 77%) to win among those same states.
- Clinton led in the states referenced in the above bullet by a median of 0.3 points and an average of 0.7 points. She wound up losing by a median of .7 points and an average of 0.9 points. Her median and average FiveThirtyEight odds for winning those battlegrounds states were 70.4% and 60% respectively.
- The percentage of voters not supporting either major party candidate in the average/median battleground state (those decided in 2016 by under 10 points) has fallen by about half, from a median/average of 10%-11% to about 5.5% for both median and average. This indicates an increase in committed voters.
- Large numbers have already voted in battleground states. This indicates a chance at unprecedented turnout. Some battleground states have reached 90% or 100% of their 2016 totals (see Fig. 4). If those states ultimately see 120%-130% of their 2016 totals (20–30 percent increase in voter turnout, seems reasonable), that means the vast majority of ballots have already been cast.
Final Thoughts on 2020 Election
By now you’ve been inundated with ads, data, research, and pundits clamoring about the 2020 election as soon as the 2016 election ended. Let’s do one thing together: breathe.
*Inhale.*
*Exhale.*
*Inhale.*
*Exhale.*
We’ve done a tremendous job growing civic engagement and political actors since Donald Trump, Jr. took office. We saw a gigantic protest in Washington, D.C. aimed at the Trump administration’s perceived efforts to limit reproductive, civil, and human rights. This, coupled with 3 million people in cities across the globe holding their own simultaneous protests resulted in the largest single-day protest in U.S. history and ranking among the highest in global history.
Additionally, we saw protests to a large number of ill-conceived actions against American values like Executive Order 13769, or the Executive Order Protecting The Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into The United States, the Day Without Immigrants protests in D.C. against immigration injustices and the construction of a border wall, and more like:
- Tax March — April 15, 2017: held in over 150 United States cities to pressure Trump to release his tax returns
- March for Science — April 22, 2017: held in Washington, D.C. on the Trump administration’s distrust of scientific experts and in handling environmental and climate-centered issues
- Impeachment March — July 2, 2017: held in U.S. cities across the nation asking Congress to impeach President Trump after alleged Foreign Emoluments Clause and obstruction of justice violations.
- Charlottesville Rally — August 12, 2017: held in Charlottesville, VA following the violence during a Unite the Right rally. The protests addressed the rise of white supremacy in the United States and the lack of condemnation of white supremacist groups by Donald Trump.
- DACA Protests — September 5, 2017: held across the nation in response to the decision to rescind the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.
- March for Our Lives Protests — March 24, 2018: held across the nation in response to the Marjory Stoneman Douglas shooting in Parkland, Florida and calling on the Trump administration to take action against gun violence.
- Black Lives Matter Protests — Summer 2020: In response to the countless police violence incidents and systematic racism, including the killing of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor.
All of this said, the Trump administration has certainly made all of us more aware of our government, its actions, and the needs of our citizens. While we still are a country with countless problems and deep divisions, we can seek some solace in the fact that the next generation of Americans is one of the most politically aware in our nation’s history.
That said, as Pete Buttigieg popularized in his 2020 political campaign for president, it is time for America to “change the channel.” I believe, based on what I’ve seen, that Joe Biden can get it done (see Fig. 5) and help heal some of these wounds.
You can see that I believe Biden will win 290 votes to Trump’s 248. This includes the flipping of Wisconsin and the victory in Pennsylvania. Trump, despite worries that they will turn blue in this cycle, maintains Texas and Georgia in his column, among others. I based this, similar to Micah Cohen, on poll numbers and ground chatter from field organizers in both camps.
This election is unlike any other. The total counts may not be known for days to come. However, you can rest assured that once the results do come in and all votes are counted, this election will be one that pollsters got right.
Happy Election Night to all, and to all, a good night.
